527 
 WTNT44 KNHC 021441
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005
  
 THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE
 BUT A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.
 CONSEQUENTLY...T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE
 DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS A CIRCULATION
 BETTER DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY WITH SEVERAL 35-KNOT UNCONTAMINATED
 WIND VECTORS...AND A COUPLE PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS THEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION
 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM
 OF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY
 FROM THE UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH...RESULTING IN
 LIGHTER SHEAR NEAR MARIA. SHIPS MODEL MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE BUT
 SINCE EVERY OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFDL...WEAKENS IT...ONLY
 GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...GIVING A LOT
 OF WEIGHT TO THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS.
  
 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
 HOURS AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...BUT IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE
 TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. MARIA IS
 EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
 IN BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH ALONG
 65W. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHTLY-
 PACKED ENVELOPE OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY TRACKS.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/1500Z 21.3N  50.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     03/0000Z 22.2N  51.2W    35 KT
  24HR VT     03/1200Z 24.0N  53.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     04/0000Z 26.0N  54.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N  55.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     05/1200Z 30.0N  56.0W    50 KT
  96HR VT     06/1200Z 33.0N  57.0W    50 KT
 120HR VT     07/1200Z 36.0N  58.0W    50 KT
  
  
 $$