551 
 WTNT44 KNHC 011441
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005
  
 LATEST SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000
 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY
 SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR AN AREA OF DEEP
 CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME THE LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
 AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE
 DEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE WEST
 AND SEPARATE ITSELF FROM THE SYSTEM...THEREBY REDUCING THE SHEAR.
 MODEL GUIDANCE ARE GIVING CONFLICTING SIGNALS...WITH THE GFS AND
 GFDL MODELS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THE
 SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING STEADY STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE
 STRENGTH BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE SLOW
 STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER SHEAR
 AND WARMER WATER SHOULD PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...TAKING
 THE SYSTEM TO 55 KT AT 120 HOURS WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN
 THE 86 KT SHIPS IS FORECASTING AT THAT TIME.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE
 WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
 ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
 TWO AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W. GLOBAL
 MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
 MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE
 SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH
 BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST.
 THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
 SUITE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS MODEL BEYOND
 48 HOURS.  
 
 FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 19.0N  46.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.6N  48.0W    30 KT
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 20.4N  50.4W    35 KT
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 21.2N  52.3W    40 KT
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 22.1N  54.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 24.0N  57.0W    50 KT
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 26.5N  59.0W    50 KT
 120HR VT     06/1200Z 31.0N  60.5W    55 KT
  
  
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