326 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 191440
 TCDEP3
  
 HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
 800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013
  
 AN AMSR2 MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0854 UTC INDICATED THAT THE LOW-
 AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF MANUAL WERE STILL VERTICALLY ALIGNED...
 AND STILL LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
 SINCE THAT TIME...RADAR IMAGES FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SHOW THAT
 CENTER CROSSED THE COAST TO THE WEST OF CULIACAN JUST AFTER 1200
 UTC...WITH AN ESTIMATED 65-KT INTENSITY.  THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY
 WELL INTACT AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65
 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 FIXES FROM THE RECENT MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
 MANUEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 3 KT.  THIS GENERAL
 MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MANUEL
 SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND.  STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND MANUEL
 IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND
 DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36
 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
  
 THE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER
 PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA DURING THE NIGHT.
 ADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
 LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN PORTIONS
 OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/1500Z 25.0N 107.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  20/0000Z 25.4N 107.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  24H  20/1200Z 25.9N 107.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  36H  21/0000Z 26.5N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN