683 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 190253
 TCDEP3
  
 HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
 800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013
  
 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE
 DATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A
 HURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN
 EYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING
 WITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED. 
  
 MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3
 KT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE
 CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY
 DEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER
 WATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF
 WEAKENING. 
 
 TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH
 DISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE
 STEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN
 FACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD
 TRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY
 CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
  24H  20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  36H  20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  48H  21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  72H  22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA