073 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 182047
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
 200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013
 
 THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A
 WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE LASTEST MICROWAVE IMAGES.  A
 RAGGED EYE HAS ALSO RECENTLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE STATELLITE
 PICTURES.  THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
 SAB AND 3.4 FROM UW/CIMSS ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
 TO 60 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THESE ESTIMATES...BASED ON THE IMPROVED
 SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  GIVEN THE
 CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER...
 MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY 
 OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
 WITH LAND WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING.  SINCE THE NEW NHC
 FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A
 HURRICANE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
 THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.
  
 THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE DYNAMICAL
 MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
 AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
 GFS SHOWS LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF IS FASTER
 TO THE COAST. THE ECMWF TAKES MANUEL TO THE COAST BEFORE IT TURNS
 WESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN AND IS
 CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
 TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL TURNING WESTWARD AT THE
 COAST...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MODELS THAT KEEP THE CYCLONE
 MEANDERING OFFSHORE.  MODEL TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT FURTHER
 EASTWARD SHIFTS ARE LIKELY.  
  
 BECAUSE OF THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF MANUEL TO THE COASTLINE OF
 MAINLAND MEXICO...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN
 WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE
 COAST.  RESIDENTS WITHIN THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD
 PREPARE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS.    
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  18/2100Z 23.9N 108.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  19/0600Z 24.5N 108.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  19/1800Z 25.0N 108.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  20/0600Z 25.3N 108.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
  48H  20/1800Z 25.4N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
  72H  21/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
  96H  22/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN