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 505 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 152044
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013
  
 AMBIGUITIES FROM A 1618 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
 MANUEL MADE LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE PASS
 ALSO INDICATED THAT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
 CYCLONE ARE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE CLOUD
 TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THAT TIME.  THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY HAS CONSERVATIVELY BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT...SINCE
 STRONGER WINDS MAY STILL BE PRESENT IN BANDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
 COAST. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
 WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
 SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
 SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF MANUEL WILL DISSIPATE
 WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08.  MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE
 STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
 OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
 THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE CIRCULATION
 REMAINS INTACT.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SOME
 MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF...SHOW A TRACK TOWARD
 THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA.  HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING
 DISCOUNTED FOR NOW SINCE THE VORTEX TRACKER APPLIED TO THESE MODELS
 SEEMS TO FOLLOW ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHILE MANUEL
 DISSIPATES.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/2100Z 19.2N 104.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  16/0600Z 20.3N 105.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  24H  16/1800Z 21.4N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY
  
 
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