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 452 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 142033
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF MANUEL HAS
 BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER.
 DVORAK...ADT...AND AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE ESTIMATES ALL SUGGEST AN
 INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY...
 ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOME STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY
 BEFORE LANDFALL GIVEN THE WARM WATER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR...
 AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
 PREDICTION. MANUEL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
 MEXICO...AND IT COULD EVEN DISSIPATE BY 36H.
  
 THE STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING LEFTWARD...NOW 345/6.  MID-LEVEL
 RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...CAUSING MANUEL
 TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT AND ACCELERATE.  THERE HAS BEEN
 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
 BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION
 THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL MIGHT MAKE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
 AGAIN SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A
 REMOTE POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
  
 THE WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED GREATLY IN THE
 SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT/SHIP DATA...
 ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS/SEAS ARE PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-
 SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN.
  
 IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
 COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF
 CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
 FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
 HAZARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/2100Z 16.8N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  15/0600Z 17.7N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  15/1800Z 19.1N 103.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  36H  16/0600Z 20.3N 104.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
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