395 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 140249
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013
  
 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS
 CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES HAVE
 IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST...AND RECENT
 PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED A SMALL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
 EYELIKE FEATURE. FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH ADT ESTIMATES
 ARE AROUND 35 KT. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
 KT BASED ON THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYELIKE FEATURE. THE 34-KT WIND
 RADII WERE EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST...BASED ON WIND
 REPORTS FROM SHIP DFZB2.
  
 IT APPEARS THAT MANUEL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY.
 MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE
 THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
 MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH INCLUDES TROPICAL STORM
 INGRID LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
 GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE ENTIRE GYRE COMPLEX TO SHIFT SLOWLY
 NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
 RESULT IN MANUEL GRADUALLY ASSUMING A NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
 MOTION BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL
 IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE
 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...MANUEL HAS A
 SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT TRMM
 AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING AN EYELIKE FEATURE. SINCE
 THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 18-24
 HOURS...MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NHC
 INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
 MODEL ICON. HOWEVER...IF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER
 THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
 STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/0300Z 15.3N 102.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  14/1200Z 16.0N 102.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  15/0000Z 17.0N 102.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  15/1200Z 18.1N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  16/0000Z 19.1N 103.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART