879 
 WTPA45 PHFO 221441
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM MALIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015
 500 AM HST TUE SEP 22 2015
  
 MALIA IS NEARING THE END OF ITS LIFESPAN AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THIS
 MORNING...BUT WE ARE NOT QUITE DONE WITH IT YET. THE LLCC IS MOVING
 FARTHER AWAY FROM THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...WHICH CONTINUES TO FLARE
 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BETWEEN MARO REEF AND
 FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. THE 250 NM SPAN BETWEEN THE LLCC AND DEEP
 CONVECTION PREVENTS SAB AND PHFO FROM PROVIDING SATELLITE-DERIVED
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHILE JTWC TURNED IN A 25 KT INTENSITY.
 HOWEVER...AN 0851 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF 35 KT WINDS 60 TO
 150 NM OUT FROM THE LLCC WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS PROMPTS
 US TO KEEP INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT...BUT THE SWATH LOCATION
 ALLOWS US TO CANCEL ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ACROSS THE
 NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  
  
 THE EXPOSED LLCC IS NOW MOVING AT 325/12 KT...REPRESENTING AN
 INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SINCE LAST EVENING. OVERALL MOTION
 CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY A COMBINATION OF A RIDGE NORTHEAST OF
 THIS SYSTEM AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE DATELINE. MALIA IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST
 THROUGH ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE LOW...THEN
 DISSIPATION AT 72 HOURS.
  
 MALIA WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL
 TRANSITION...REACHING 45 KT AT 24 HOURS. BY THEN...THE ASSOCIATED
 WIND FIELD WILL BE EVEN MORE ASSYMETRIC THAN IT IS
 NOW...BRIEFLY ENJOYING THE BENEFITS OF A STEEPENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
 BETWEEN MIDLATITUDE FEATURES. BEYOND 12 HOURS...THE TRACK AND
 INTENSITY FORECAST WAS CONDUCTED IN COLLABORATION WITH THE OCEAN
 PREDICTION CENTER...OPC.
  
 THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
 MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO
 LISIANSKI ISLAND IS CANCELLED. THE 0851 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED THAT
 THE SWATH OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS NOW COMFORTABLY NORTH OF
 ALL THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  22/1500Z 28.7N 173.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  23/0000Z 31.8N 175.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  24H  23/1200Z 36.0N 178.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  24/0000Z 39.7N 178.3E   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  24/1200Z 42.7N 174.9E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER POWELL