227 
 WTPA45 PHFO 192059
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP052015
 1100 AM HST SAT SEP 19 2015
  
 THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE MORNING SHOW THAT THE LOW 
 LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH 
 THAN HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED. THIS WAS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY 
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 25 KT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS 
 ESTIMATE AND CIMSS ANALYSIS. A PERSISTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION 
 REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
 ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.0/30 KT FROM HFO AND SAB TO 2.5/35 KT FROM 
 JTWC...WITH A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE CENTER LOCATIONS. THE 
 INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 DUE TO THE EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION
 HAS BEEN SLOWED TO 5 KT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...OR 15 DEGREES.
 THE CYCLONE IS MOVING ON A GENERAL...LONG-TERM NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
 TRACK BETWEEN A BROAD...DEEP AND SLOWLY DIGGING TROUGH FAR TO THE 
 NORTHWEST AND A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED FAR TO THE
 NORTHEAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK AND
 SLOWLY GAIN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
 INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP TROUGH INCREASES. A TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
 BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE DEEP TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SLOWED IN
 THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE RELOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER THIS
 MORNING AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
 ENVELOPE OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND
 BEYOND...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES...AND THE FORECAST WAS COORDINATED
 WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.
 
 SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH DUE
 TO THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ASSUMING THAT THE LOWER AND 
 UPPER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM CAN REMAIN COUPLED UNDER CONTINUED 
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN SLOWED 
 DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WILL NEED
 SOME TIME IF IT IS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE DEEP
 CONVECTION. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
 LOW WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY BY TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
 INCREASINGLY INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST...THOUGH
 THIS PROCESS MAY OCCUR FASTER IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD. THE FORECAST
 CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS...ICON...AND THE ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY AND
 WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER BEYOND THAT TIME.
 
 THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A TROPICAL STORM 
 WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE 
 PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE 
 SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. GIVEN THE INHERENT 
 UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A TROPICAL STORM 
 WATCH REMAINS FOR THE AREA FROM LISIANSKI ISLAND TO PEARL AND 
 HERMES.
  
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  19/2100Z 19.0N 174.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 20.0N 174.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  20/1800Z 22.1N 173.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  21/0600Z 24.4N 172.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  21/1800Z 27.2N 172.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  22/1800Z 33.3N 172.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  23/1800Z 38.6N 173.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE