633 
 WTPA43 PHFO 121505
 TCDCP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012009
 500 AM HST WED AUG 12 2009
 
 POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA...WHICH HAS SPORADIC AND 
 WIDELY SPACED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME...MAY 
 NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 
 0532 UTC. AT THAT TIME...THERE WAS A NORTH NORTHEAST TO SOUTH 
 SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE HI-RESOLUTION 
 QUIKSCAT WIND FIELD. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0829 UTC...WHICH HAS A MUCH 
 SMALLER SWATH...ALSO SUGGESTED THERE WAS A SURFACE TROUGH. BOTH OF 
 THESE PLATFORMS INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT...TAKING 
 INTO ACCOUNT RAIN FLAGS...UNDERNEATH THE APPARENT CLOUD-LEVEL 
 CIRCULATION CENTER...OR CENTERS WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING DURING THE 
 PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. SO THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY 
 ABOUT THE ACTUAL INITIAL LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. AS A 
 RESULT...THE POSITION FIXES REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD. THE CENTER 
 POSITION USED FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE 
 PHFO...SAB...AND PGTW FIXES...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH EXTRAPOLATION 
 BASED ON THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY 
 ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES RANGED FROM 1.0 TO 1.5. 
 THE QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORTED 30 KT SURFACE WINDS...SO WILL MAINTAIN 
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. 
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 NEAR LATITUDE 36N. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 280 DEG / 06 KT. THE GFS
 MODEL SUGGESTS THIS RIDGE MAY WEAKEN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MAKA
 TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
 HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON THIS TURN WITH A RATHER TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE
 INDIVIDUAL FORECAST TRACKS. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DURING DAYS
 3 TO 5. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
 PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT
 THEREAFTER. THIS IS CLOSELY IN LINE WITH THE GFDI MODEL AND THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS...SUCH AS GUNA...TCON AND TVCN. 
  
 WITH THE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF MAKA...THE GREAT
 UNCERTAINTY IN ITS INITIAL LOCATION AND THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
 THAT IT HAS NO CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER...THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES
 TO TAKE MAKA ACROSS 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CIRA OCEAN
 HEAT CONTENT ALSO SHOWS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE VALUES ALONG THE
 FORECAST TRACK THROUGH DAY 4. THE LATEST UW/CIMSS VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR ESTIMATE SHOWS MAKA IS ENCOUNTERING 14 KT OF SHEAR FROM 225
 DEG. THE OUTPUT FROM THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SHEAR DECREASING DURING
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
 PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH PLENTY OF WARM WATER
 AND LOWERING SHEAR FORECAST...HAVE FOLLOWED THE MIDDLE OF THE
 GUIDANCE FROM GFDI...HWRF AND SHIPS...AND KEEP MAKA A TROPICAL
 STORM THROUGH DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS IS STILL WEAKER THAN THE
 GFDI...WHICH INTENSIFIES MAKA TO A 79 KT TYPHOON ON DAY 5 AFTER IT
 CROSSES THE DATE LINE INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/1500Z 14.8N 173.9W    30 KT
  12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.1N 175.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     13/1200Z 15.6N 177.3W    35 KT
  36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.3N 178.7W    40 KT
  48HR VT     14/1200Z 17.2N 179.9E    45 KT
  72HR VT     15/1200Z 19.4N 178.1E    50 KT
  96HR VT     16/1200Z 22.1N 176.3E    55 KT
 120HR VT     17/1200Z 25.0N 174.4E    55 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON