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 080 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 270903
 TCDEP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016
 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016
 
 Madeline is gradually becoming better organized this morning, with
 increasing convective banding noted near the center. Satellite
 intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and
 this intensity is supported by various objective estimates from
 CIMSS and CIRA.
 
 The initial motion is now 300/9.  For the next few days, Madeline
 should move generally northwestward as it is steered by a segment of
 the subtropical ridge.  After 72 hours, a turn toward the west is
 likely as Madeline encounters the westward-building subtropical
 ridge that is steering Hurricane Lester.  The track guidance has
 shifted significantly to the north since the previous advisory, and
 near the end of the forecast period there is a fair amount of
 spread regarding whether Madeline will move near the Hawaiian
 Islands or north of them.  The new forecast track is shifted
 northward, but it lies to the south of the center of the guidance
 envelope and the consensus models.
 
 Madeline will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a
 light-to-moderate easterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3
 days. This should allow for steady intensification, and the new
 intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in
 showing Madeline becoming a hurricane in 36 hours or so.  After 72
 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier air mass along
 the forecast track should result in a slow weakening.  The new
 intensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast,
 but it lies a little below the intensity consensus.
 
 It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone
 could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast
 period.  It is important to remind users that the average 5-day
 track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about
 170 miles.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0900Z 14.5N 138.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 15.1N 139.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 15.8N 140.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  28/1800Z 16.7N 141.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z 17.8N 143.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  30/0600Z 19.5N 146.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  31/0600Z 20.5N 150.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  01/0600Z 20.5N 155.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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