750 
 WTPA45 PHFO 011458
 TCDCP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016
 500 AM HST THU SEP 01 2016
  
 After a several hour period where Madeline had a rather ragged
 satellite presentation, a burst of deep convection developed near
 the center around midnight, and has since persisted with an
 abundance of lightning. Latest subjective Dvorak current intensity 
 estimates from SAB/HFO/GTW were a unanimous 3.0/45 kt, and the 
 initial intensity for this advisory has been maintained at 45 kt.
 
 The initial motion for this advisory is once again 260/12 kt.
 Although Madeline has been moving toward the southwest over the
 past couple of hours, guidance indicates that a westward movement
 will resume shortly as Madeline is steered by a low- to mid-level
 ridge centered to the north and northwest of the cyclone. As
 Madeline nears the southwestern periphery of the ridge on days 3
 and 4, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The updated
 track forecast is near the center of the reliable guidance suite 
 and the previous forecast, and closely follows the latest HWRF 
 guidance.
  
 Despite moving over waters sufficiently warm to support a strong
 hurricane, the intensity forecast continues to anticipate Madeline 
 steadily weakening until dissipation occurs on day 5. The primary
 factor driving this forecast is moderate to strong southwesterly to
 westerly shear supplied by a retrograding upper-level trough now
 northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. While SHIPS indicates some 
 reintensification in the later forecast periods, the official
 forecast follows trends presented by the GFS and ECMWF, which
 indicate dissipation by day 4.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/1500Z 16.7N 157.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  02/0000Z 16.5N 158.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  02/1200Z 16.5N 161.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  03/0000Z 16.3N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  03/1200Z 16.3N 166.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  04/1200Z 17.0N 170.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  05/1200Z 18.0N 174.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard