939 
 WTPA45 PHFO 292104
 TCDCP5
 
 HURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP142016
 1100 AM HST MON AUG 29 2016
  
 Madeline has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours, with
 infrared satellite images depicting a cloud-filled eye encircled by
 a solid ring of deep convection. Except for some modest restriction
 in the southern semicircle, upper-level outflow is otherwise
 unimpeded and the cyclone has taken on an increasingly symmetric
 appearance. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB/HFO/GTW
 also indicate a significant increase in intensity, with latest
 estimates indicating 5.5/103 kt. ADT from UW-CIMSS indicates an
 intensity near 110 kt, while SATCON is near 90 kt. Based on a blend
 of this data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been
 increased to 100 kt, making Madeline a major (category 3) hurricane
 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane hunters from
 the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron are slated to begin flying
 investigative flights into Madeline tomorrow morning, which will
 give us valuable information as to Madeline's actual intensity and
 size. 
 
 The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 300/09 kt, with
 Madeline currently on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
 ridge. A deep-layer trough lies far north of Madeline, with the
 system generally tracking toward a weakness in the ridge caused by
 this trough. This is expected to be the case for the next 24 hours
 or so, after which time the trough is forecast to fill, and mid-
 level heights will build to the north and northwest of the cyclone.
 Guidance remain consistent in tracking Madeline toward the west-
 northwest in the short term, with a turn toward the west anticipated
 to begin on Tuesday as heights build. The updated track forecast is
 close to the previous and the GFEX through 72 hours, and thereafter
 lies to the right of the previous, close to the latest multi-model
 consensus TVCN. 
 
 While Madeline is currently near a col in the upper level flow, a
 high-level trough is forecast to dig southward toward Madeline
 Tuesday and Tuesday night, introducing increasing southwesterly
 shear. This, combined with some drying in the mid-levels, is
 expected to lead to a gradual weakening trend after tonight. In the
 mean time, relatively light shear and warm SSTs may allow Madeline
 to intensify a little more, as indicated by SHIPS guidance. The
 updated intensity forecast follows the trends presented by the
 previous, after accounting for the higher initial intensity. 
 
 The latest track and intensity forecast necessitates a Hurricane
 Watch for Hawaii County. Depending on the evolution of the
 forecast, a watch may be required for additional Hawaiian Islands
 later today or tonight. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  29/2100Z 18.6N 145.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  30/0600Z 19.0N 146.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  30/1800Z 19.2N 148.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  31/0600Z 19.0N 150.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  31/1800Z 18.7N 152.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  01/1800Z 18.0N 156.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  02/1800Z 18.4N 160.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  03/1800Z 19.0N 165.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard