867 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 231437
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014
 
 Lowell has been devoid of deep convection since around 1000 UTC. If
 deep convection does not regenerate, which seems unlikely given that
 the cyclone is moving over SSTs around 23C, Lowell could become a
 post-tropical cyclone by tonight. The initial intensity of 35 kt is
 based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The cyclone should
 gradually spin down during the next few days as it remains over cool
 SSTs and in a stable airmass.
 
 The initial motion estimate remains 310/7 kt. Lowell is expected to
 turn west-northwestward tonight and continue moving generally
 west-northwestward through the period under the influence of a
 low-level ridge to the north. There continues to be a large spread
 in the track model guidance after 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing
 more poleward motion at days 4 and 5 while the GFS and GEFS ensemble
 mean show a more westward track. The new NHC track forecast is
 between the two camps and a little to the left of the previous
 advisory, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/1500Z 23.7N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  24/0000Z 24.4N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  24H  24/1200Z 25.1N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  25/0000Z 25.4N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  25/1200Z 25.8N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  26/1200Z 27.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  27/1200Z 28.5N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  28/1200Z 30.0N 143.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
 
 868 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 231437
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014
 
 The compact hurricane is maintaining its strength this morning.
 The eye of Karina has become a little more distinct during the past
 few hours and cloud tops remain quite cold to the south of the
 center.  The initial wind speed is held at 70 kt based on a blend
 of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values
 from UW-CIMSS.  The hurricane will soon cross the 26 C isotherm,
 and total precipitable water imagery shows some dry air beginning
 to wrap around the circulation.  These environmental conditions
 combined with some increase in shear should cause the weakening
 process to begin later today or tonight.  The NHC intensity forecast
 is largely an update of the previous one and lies fairly close to
 the intensity model consensus, IVCN.
 
 Karina is moving northeastward at about 6 kt in the broad
 southwesterly flow to the south of much larger but weaker Tropical
 Storm Lowell.  A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later
 today and that general motion should continue for the the next
 couple of days.  Beyond that time, however, the models have
 differing solutions.  The previous discussion outlined the varying
 scenarios of what could drive Karina northward and northwestward as
 it interacts with what is left of Lowell, and the possibility that
 Karina stalls or is driven further eastward due to its interaction
 with Hurricane Marie.  The models are trending toward the latter
 scenario, and the NHC official track forecast shows a slower forward
 speed at days 3-5 to account for that information.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/1500Z 17.2N 134.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  24/0000Z 17.6N 133.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  24/1200Z 18.2N 131.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  25/0000Z 18.7N 129.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  25/1200Z 19.0N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  26/1200Z 20.3N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  27/1200Z 20.8N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  28/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi