551 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 222034
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014
 
 Convection continues to gradually wane around the large circulation
 of Lowell. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of
 the latest Dvorak Final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB
 and SAB. The cyclone is now over waters around 25C and will be
 moving over waters of 22-23C by 36 hours. This should results in
 Lowell becomes a post-tropical cyclone by that time, followed by
 weakening to a remnant low in about 2 days.
 
 The initial motion is 310/08. Lowell should continue moving
 generally northwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level
 ridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening
 cyclone is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest as it comes
 under the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC
 forecast is a little to the left of the previous NHC track to
 account for the initial position and it close to a consensus of the
 GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/2100Z 22.4N 124.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  23/0600Z 23.3N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  23/1800Z 24.4N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  24/0600Z 25.2N 128.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  24/1800Z 25.8N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  25/1800Z 27.0N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  26/1800Z 29.0N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  27/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan