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 727 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 212040
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
 200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014
 
 The structure of Lowell continues to feature a large eye, however
 the convective banding is a little more ragged than it was 6 hours
 ago. The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on the latest TAFB
 and SAB Dvorak classifications. Lowell will be moving across the 26C
 isotherm in the next few hours, and gradual weakening should begin
 as the cyclone moves over cooler waters and into a more stable
 airmass. Since Lowell is such a large cyclone, it will likely take
 longer than average to spin down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell
 becoming a post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in 3 days and
 weakening to a remnant low afterward.
 
 Lowell jogged a little to the right over the past few hours, but
 seems to have resumed a slow northwestward motion of 315/03. The
 track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Lowell should move a
 little faster toward the northwest as a ridge rebuilds to the east
 and north of the cyclone. Late in the period a shallower Lowell
 should be steered more toward the west-northwest by the
 low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC track forecast is a
 little to the right of the previous one through 72 hours to account
 for the initial position, but is otherwise an update of the
 previous NHC track. The official forecast also lies very close to
 a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model forecasts.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/2100Z 20.3N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  22/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  22/1800Z 22.3N 124.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  23/0600Z 23.4N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  23/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  24/1800Z 26.2N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  25/1800Z 28.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  26/1800Z 29.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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