894 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 211432
 TCDEP2
 
 HURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
 800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014
 
 The convective ring surrounding the large ragged eye of Lowell has
 closed off over the past few hours, and the eye has warmed a little.
 The initial intensity is set to 65 kt based on the latest Dvorak
 estimates from TAFB and SAB, making Lowell the seventh hurricane of
 the eastern North Pacific season. Little change in intensity is
 expected in the next 12 hours, but Lowell should begin to slowly
 weaken after that time as it moves over progressively cooler waters
 and into a drier and more stable airmass. Since Lowell is such a
 large cyclone, it will likely take longer than average to spin
 down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell becoming a post-tropical cyclone
 with gale-force winds in 3 days and weakening to a remnant low
 afterward.
 
 The initial motion estimate remains 315/03. As a mid/upper-level
 trough over southern California weakens and moves eastward, a
 ridge will rebuild to the north and east of Lowell. This should
 result in a faster northwestward motion for the next 3 days,
 followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest as the cyclone
 becomes a shallower system steered by the low-level ridge to the
 north. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous
 one, and is very close to the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/1500Z 20.0N 122.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan