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 027 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 200840
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
 200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014
 
 The large tropical storm is maintaining its strength tonight.
 Curved convective bands remain well organized on the south side
 of the circulation, but deep convection is thin to the north of the
 center.  The initial intensity is kept at 45 kt, in agreement with
 the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Lowell is currently over
 27 C waters, and in an atmosphere of fairly low shear and high
 moisture.  Since the storm is expected to remain in these favorable
 conditions for another 36 hours, some strengthening is forecast.
 Beyond that time, however, Lowell will be moving over waters cooler
 than 26 C and into a drier and more stable air mass.  These
 environmental conditions should cause the cyclone to gradually lose
 strength.  The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and now
 calls for Lowell to weaken to a remnant low by 96 hours.
 
 Lowell has wobbled to the west recently, but a 12-h initial motion
 estimate is northwestward at about 4 kt.  The track forecast
 reasoning is unchanged from the previous advisories.  A mid- to
 upper-level low over southern California has produced a substantial
 weakness in the subtropical ridge and should cause Lowell to move
 slowly northwestward to north-northwestward during the next day or
 so.  The upper low is expected to move northeastward and weaken
 late Thursday or Friday, allowing the subtropical ridge to build to
 the north of the storm.  This pattern change should cause Lowell to
 speed up and gradually turn west-northwestward.  The track guidance
 has shifted a little to the west this cycle, and the NHC forecast
 is adjusted slightly in that direction.
 
 A pair of altimeter passes around 0400 UTC provided excellent sea
 height data for Lowell; therefore, there is high confidence in the
 12-ft sea radii for this advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/0900Z 18.7N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  20/1800Z 19.1N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  21/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  23/0600Z 24.0N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  24/0600Z 26.0N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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