487 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 192035
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014
 
 A recent ASCAT-B pass over Lowell around 1800 UTC confirmed that the
 cyclone still has a large wind field, with 34-kt winds extended out
 more than 100 nautical miles in all quadrants. ASCAT showed some 40
 kt winds east of the center, and assuming a bit of a low bias, the
 initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory. Lowell will
 remain in a moderate shear environment for the next day or so while
 still over SSTs above 27C, which could support a little
 strengthening in short term, followed by little change through 48
 hours. After that time, gradual weakening is expected as Lowell will
 move over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable airmass,
 and should become a remnant low by 5 days. In general the intensity
 guidance has trended lower this cycle, and so has the official
 forecast, which is close to the IVCN consensus.
 
 The ASCAT pass and visible satellite imagery yield a little more
 certainty with the center position and initial motion estimate of
 310/07. Lowell is expected to move slowly northwestward to north-
 northwestward over the next 48 hours while a shortwave trough
 digs southward along the California coast and weakens the
 subtropical ridge. As the trough moves eastward, some ridging will
 rebuild to the north, which should result in the weakening cyclone
 accelerating west-northwestward by the end of the period. The new
 NHC track is once similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE
 consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/2100Z 18.4N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 18.8N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  20/1800Z 19.3N 121.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  21/0600Z 20.0N 121.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  21/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  22/1800Z 23.5N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  23/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  24/1800Z 27.5N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan