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 724 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 190832
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014
 
 Lowell is on a strengthening trend.  The cloud pattern of the storm
 has become better organized during the last several hours with the
 associated banding features now beginning to wrap around the
 center. ASCAT overpasses around 0500 UTC showed maximum reliable
 winds in the 40-45 kt range and a large radius of maximum winds of
 about 80 n mi.  The initial wind speed is set at 45 kt, which is a
 little higher than the latest Dvorak classifications.  Lowell is
 expected to remain in an environment of moderate shear, high
 moisture, and over relatively warm water for another couple of
 days. These conditions should allow for some additional
 strengthening.  Beyond that time, Lowell will be moving over cooler
 water and into a stable air mass, which should cause the system to
 weaken.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
 previous one and in good agreement with the model consensus, IVCN.
 
 The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward, 295 degrees, at 6
 kt steered by a ridge to its northeast.  A gradual turn toward the
 north-northwest is expected by tonight when a trough deepens over
 the southwestern United States.  This trough is expected to lift out
 on Thursday, allowing for some ridging to become re-established to
 the north of Lowell.  This pattern change should cause the system to
 bend to the left at days 4 and 5.  The NHC track forecast is fairly
 close to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance
 envelope.
 
 A northward surge of moisture over the northern Baja California
 peninsula and the southwestern United States, partly associated with
 the eastern portion of the cyclone's large circulation, is still
 forecast by most of the global models to occur late Wednesday and
 Thursday.  Please monitor products issued by your local National
 Weather Service office for more details on a possible heavy rainfall
 threat.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/0900Z 17.3N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  19/1800Z 17.7N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  20/0600Z 18.3N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  20/1800Z 18.9N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  21/0600Z 19.5N 121.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  22/0600Z 21.6N 123.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  23/0600Z 24.0N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  24/0600Z 26.2N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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