528 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 180846
 TCDEP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
 200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014
 
 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed significantly
 during the last several hours.  The cyclone has a large
 circulation, with its associated wind field extending several
 hundred miles across.  Curved banding is mainly confined to the
 western half of the system due to about 15 kt of east-northeasterly
 shear.  The latest Dvorak classifications continue to support an
 initial wind speed estimate of 30 kt.   Some strengthening is
 likely during the next few days while the cyclone remains over warm
 water, within a moist air mass, and in an environment of moderate
 shear.  The system is expected to move over cooler water and into a
 more stable atmosphere by the end of the week, and that should
 cause the cyclone to lose strength.  The weakening process over
 cold water could be slower than normal as large cyclones like this
 one typically take longer to spin down.
 
 The depression is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side
 of a subtropical ridge.  This ridge is expected to shift eastward
 and weaken while a trough deepens over California.  This pattern
 change should cause the tropical cyclone to make a gradual turn
 toward the north during the next 2 to 3 days.  Beyond that time, a
 slight left turn is predicted as the trough lifts out.  The NHC
 track forecast is a little to the left and slower than the previous
 one to come into better agreement with the latest guidance.
 
 It is worth noting that while the official forecast is well
 offshore of the southwestern United States, model guidance does
 show a surge of moisture partly associated with this system
 extending into that region late Wednesday and Thursday.  Please
 monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
 office for more details on a possible heavy rain threat.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0900Z 16.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  18/1800Z 16.4N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  19/0600Z 17.0N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  19/1800Z 17.7N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  20/0600Z 18.4N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  21/0600Z 19.7N 120.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  22/0600Z 22.2N 122.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  23/0600Z 25.5N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi