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 422 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 111440
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
 800 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2008
  
 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LOWELL'S
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS MADE A JOG TO THE EAST AROUND THE
 PERIPHERY OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND
 HAS NOW EMERGED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG
 CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -86C HAVE DEVELOPED OVER AND
 NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...INDICATING THAT LOWELL MAKE HANG ON AS A
 TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT
 AND T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE
 STANDARD GUST DIFFERENTIAL WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT DUE TO THE STRONG
 CONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/09. ONCE LOWELL COMPLETELY CLEARS
 THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA...THOSE MINOR STEERING EFFECTS SHOULD BE
 ELIMINATED AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A BASE COURSE
 TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THEN TURN TOWARD
 THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THAT AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE STATE OF
 SINALOA IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
 OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS MODELS.
  
 GIVEN THE RELATIVELY NARROW WIDTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
 LOWELL'S FORWARD SPEED...THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF
 OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND EVEN THEN IT IS
 UNLIKELY THAT LOWELL WOULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE
 LANDFALL OCCURS. HOWEVER...THE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THAT HAS
 DEVELOPED COULD EASILY PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE.
 
 THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
 RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
 AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1500Z 23.8N 109.2W    25 KT
  12HR VT     12/0000Z 25.0N 108.7W    25 KT
  24HR VT     12/1200Z 26.5N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
  36HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
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