892 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 092040
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008
 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008
  
 LOWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP
 CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT OF WHICH BEGAN AROUND 1400 UTC. 
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT BUT THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT SINCE CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED TO
 WEAKEN.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS
 CLOUDS...INDICATIVE OF STABLE AIR...TO THE WEST OF LOWELL. 
 THIS...COUPLED WITH SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
 GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
 SPLIT AS TO WHETHER LOWELL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT
 REACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LOWELL
 WEAKENING JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE
 BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES STILL
 INDICATE A 26 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LOWELL WILL BE A TROPICAL STORM
 AT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
 OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  AFTER CROSSING THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHAT'S
 LEFT OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  FORECAST
 POINTS ARE GIVEN THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE
 CYCLONE CAN SURVIVE THAT LONG.
  
 LOWELL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
 AFOREMENTIONED BURSTS OF CONVECTION...BUT A 12-18 HOUR AVERAGE
 YIELDS 320/03.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
 TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  IN FACT...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES
 SUGGEST A NORTHWARD MOTION MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN.  TRACK MODELS
 REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THE
 FASTEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE UKMET...ACTUALLY SHOWS LOWELL
 REACHING BAJA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS
 MODEL...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE BUT
 IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/2100Z 20.9N 113.2W    40 KT
  12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.7N 113.0W    35 KT
  24HR VT     10/1800Z 22.8N 112.2W    35 KT
  36HR VT     11/0600Z 23.9N 111.5W    30 KT
  48HR VT     11/1800Z 25.2N 110.6W    25 KT
  72HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W    20 KT
  96HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
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