678 
 WTNT43 KNHC 240836
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013
 500 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013
  
 LORENZO IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE
 DEPRESSION WAS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING
 YESTERDAY...BUT A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY
 DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
 REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES
 TO AFFECT LORENZO...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTION FROM
 ORGANIZING. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN DURING THE
 NEXT DAY OR SO...DRY AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
 SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO LOSE STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
 TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
  
 THE DEPRESSION IS TURNING TO THE LEFT...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/4. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
 APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
 UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC TRACK
 FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE
 LATEST ECMWF RUN.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/0900Z 29.8N  47.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  24/1800Z 30.4N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  25/0600Z 31.4N  46.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  25/1800Z 32.5N  44.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI