366 
 WTNT43 KNHC 230239
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013
 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013
  
 SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
 DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR LORENZO HAS TURNED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
 INCREASED TO NEARLY 25 KT.  AS A CONSEQUENCE...MOST OF THE DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS BEEN PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
 CENTER.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO ASCAT PASSES OVER LORENZO SINCE THIS
 TIME YESTERDAY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT BASED ON
 ESTIMATES FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS
 EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER TO AROUND 40 KT OUT OF THE NORTH
 WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND WEAKENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO BEGIN VERY
 SOON.  THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER
 WATERS SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48
 HOURS.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
 INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND
 IT STILL SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS.
  
 LORENZO IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND JUST
 TO THE SOUTH OF FAST MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WHICH ARE STEERING
 THE CYCLONE EASTWARD AT 085/8 KT.  WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
 EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE ON STEERING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE
 SHALLOW...AND LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER
 THE NEXT 36 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THERE ARE
 SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND
 ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION COMPARED TO THE GFDL AND HWRF
 MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HEDGES TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL
 SCENARIOS AND IS THEREFORE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS TVCA...ESPECIALLY AT 36 AND 48 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  23/0300Z 29.6N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  23/1200Z 29.8N  49.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  24/0000Z 30.3N  48.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  24/1200Z 31.4N  47.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  25/0000Z 32.6N  45.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG