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 936 
 WTNT43 KNHC 222035
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013
 500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013
  
 THE EARLIER TREND OF ORGANIZATION ENDED LATE THIS MORNING...AND
 THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LORENZO
 SINCE THAT TIME. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE
 ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF
 CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB
 AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 45
 KT. A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD
 REACH LORENZO WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
 GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE
 GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LORENZO SHEARING APART IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH
 THE REMNANT CIRCULATION BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BETWEEN 48 AND 72
 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
 PREVIOUS ONE AND A BIT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
  
 CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO IS LIKELY MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE
 EAST OR 085/08. HOWEVER...CIRRUS CLOUD DEBRIS HAS BEEN OBSCURING
 THE CENTER SINCE THIS MORNING...MAKING THE INITIAL POSITION AND
 MOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE RATIONALE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS
 UNCHANGED. LORENZO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD TO
 EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK
 SHOULD BEND NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES
 EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
 WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS HAIR TO THE RIGHT OF
 THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTERLY INITIAL MOTION
 AND NEAR BUT RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  22/2100Z 29.4N  51.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  23/0600Z 29.5N  50.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  23/1800Z 29.8N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  24/0600Z 30.5N  48.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  24/1800Z 31.7N  46.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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