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 634 
 WTNT43 KNHC 220833
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013
 500 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013
 
 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS...MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
 LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS DEEP CLOUDINESS.  THE
 LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT
 SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 35 KT.  LORENZO COULD
 STRENGTHEN A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES
 SUBSTANTIALLY.  THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE VERTICAL
 CIRCULATION BECOMING HIGHLY TILTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
 STRONG SHEAR.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF LORENZO SHOULD AID IN THE
 WEAKENING PROCESS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4
 DAYS...BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THIS OCCURRING SOONER.
 
 LORENZO IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/7.  AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION
 IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STORM MOVES IN THE
 WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE
 WEAKENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE
 WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE
 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO
 THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  22/0900Z 29.5N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  22/1800Z 29.7N  51.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  23/0600Z 29.9N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  23/1800Z 30.2N  49.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  24/0600Z 30.8N  48.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  25/0600Z 32.8N  45.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
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