188 
 WTPA42 PHFO 260841
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015
 1100 PM HST TUE AUG 25 2015
  
 THE CORE OF LOKE REMAINS INTACT AS IT IS BEING DRAWN AROUND A DEEP 
 LOW CENTERED 450 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAD 
 BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE IT HAS 
 BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THIS EVENING...A 
 0555 UTC SSMIS PASS WAS HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE CENTER. DVORAK 
 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A 2.5/35 KT BY HFO AND JTWC 
 TO 3.0/45 KT OUT OF SAB. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
 DROPPED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST...OR 325 DEGREES...AT 18 KT. LOKE
 IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LOW 
 CENTERED 450 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOKE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD 
 THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
 LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. ON WEDNESDAY LOKE WILL 
 CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO
 TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE
 CIRCULATION OF A LARGER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TYPHOON ATSANI.
 THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 LOKE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE DEEP LOW CENTERED TO THE 
 SOUTHWEST. THE CORE REMAINS INTACT FOR NOW WITH OUTFLOW PERSISTING 
 TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL WILL 
 BE OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THE WIND FIELD WILL 
 BECOME INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRICAL...AND IN COORDINATION WITH THE 
 OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...LOKE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
 TRANSITION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BE ABSORBED INTO THE
 CIRCULATION OF FORMER ATSANI BY 48 HOURS.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/0900Z 33.2N 175.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  26/1800Z 36.3N 178.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  27/0600Z 41.6N 177.5E   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  27/1800Z 48.7N 172.7E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  28/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE