307 
 WTPA42 PHFO 252047
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015
 1100 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2015
 
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 4.0/65KT FROM SAB AND HFO AND 
 3.0/45KT FROM JTWC. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HIGHER CLOUDS 
 AROUND LOKE ARE BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW LEVEL 
 CENTER IS STARTING TO BECOME EXPOSED. I HAVE DROPPED THE INITIAL 
 INTENSITY TO 60 KT AND DOWNGRADED LOKE TO A TROPICAL STORM.
 
 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE 1200 UTC POSITION WAS TOO 
 FAR NORTHEAST SO I HAVE RE-BESTED THAT POSITION. AFTER ADJUSTING 
 THE TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION FOR LOKE IS NOW TOWARD THE NORTH 
 AT 16 KT. DESPITE THE TRACK ADJUSTMENT...THE REASONING FOR THE 
 FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED. LOKE IS MOVING ALONG EAST OF A 
 DEEP AND NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A LITTLE 
 MORE THAN 450 MILES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LOKE WILL TURN TOWARD
 THE NORTH NORTHWEST TODAY THEN TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
 THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AS IT IS DRAWN INTO A 
 LARGER AND STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE 
 NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS CLOSELY WITHIN
 A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 LOKE HAS BEGUN WEAKENING DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
 COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO 
 BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AS LOKE HEADS NORTHWEST AND STARTS TO BECOME
 EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS. THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
 WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND DECREASE ELSEWHERE.
 LOKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 36
 HOURS. LOKE WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGE LOW THAT WAS ONCE TYPHOON
 ATSANI IN 48 HOURS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/2100Z 31.0N 173.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  26/0600Z 33.2N 174.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  26/1800Z 36.7N 178.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  27/0600Z 41.6N 177.5E   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON