258 
 WTPA42 PHFO 242118
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM LOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP042015
 1100 AM HST MON AUG 24 2015
 
 THE CLOUD PATTERN AROUND LOKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX 
 HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T3.0/50KT 
 FROM THE THREE FIX SITES...HFO...SAB AND JTWC. THE UW-CIMSS ADT 
 INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 75 KT. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THROUGH MOST OF 
 THE NIGHT DID NOT SHOW WELL-DEFINED CENTER LOCATIONS. HOWEVER 
 RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES VERY WELL-DEFINED CENTERS INCREASING THE 
 CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BUT RAISING DOUBTS ABOUT THE 
 24/1200 UTC POSITION. I HAVE RE-BESTED THE 24/1200 UTC POSITION TO 
 ACCOUNT FOR THESE FIXES. THIS RE-ANALYSIS HAS SHIFTED THE INITIAL 
 MOTION FARTHER EAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/13. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN
 IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A LOW ALOFT DIGGING SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
 LOKE. THIS LOW BE THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE STEERING OF LOKE 
 DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY 
 GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOKE ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW. THIS 
 WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED 
 THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST 
 TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AN A GRADUAL ACCELERATION IN FORWARD
 SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY AND IS NEAR
 THE MIDDLE OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
 
 BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE LOKE FORECAST WILL BECOME DOMINATED BY THE 
 FORMER TYPHOON ATSANI. LOKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 
 72 HOURS AND BY 96 HOURS SHOULD BE ABSORBED INTO THE MUCH LARGER 
 CIRCULATION OF EX-ATSANI.
  
 LOKE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-29C FOR
 ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 30N.
 WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS INCREASING AS THE CYCLONE
 MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD...THE MORE RAPID NORTHEAST MOTION
 OF THE STORM SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINING SUFFICIENTLY LOW RELATIVE
 SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING LOKE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 24 HOURS.
 A STEADY WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 48 HOURS...AS THE
 CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS AND BEGINS
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
  
 THE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR MIDWAY ATOLL AND FOR THE PART
 OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA CHANGES BETWEEN LISIANSKI AND MARO
 REEF. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PEARL AND HERMES
 REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF
 LOKE WILL PASS BETWEEN PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL AND LISIANSKI LATE
 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT IT IS
 IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF
 LOKE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND WELL
 AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  24/2100Z 25.8N 176.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  25/0600Z 27.5N 175.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  25/1800Z 30.1N 174.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  26/0600Z 33.1N 175.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  26/1800Z 36.9N 178.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  27/1800Z 45.7N 173.3E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON