835 
 WTNT43 KNHC 250240
 TCDAT3
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016
 
 No deep convection was observed near the center of Lisa between
 1200 UTC yesterday and 0200 UTC today. Although one small areas of
 convection has tried to develop since then, it is insufficient to
 meet the organized deep convection requirement for a tropical
 cyclone.  Yesterday's overnight burst of convection seems to have
 been supported in part by an upper level low, however Lisa has now
 moved farther to the west of that feature.  In the absence of any
 other synoptic-scale forcing, the redevelopment of widespread deep
 convection is unlikely. No new scatterometer data is available
 tonight, so the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt.  Without
 any convection to maintain the circulation, Lisa should gradually
 spin down over the next day or so before dissipating ahead of a
 deep-layer trough approaching from the west.
 
 The low-level remnants of Lisa are moving around a high pressure
 system centered near the Azores.  The global models are in good
 agreement that this high will move retreat eastward over the next
 day or so, which should cause Lisa to turn toward the north in
 12-24 hours.  A turn toward the north-northeast ahead of the
 approaching front is possible before the circulation dissipates
 entirely.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  25/0300Z 25.8N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  12H  25/1200Z 27.2N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  26/0000Z 29.3N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  26/1200Z 31.4N  42.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky