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 607 
 WTNT43 KNHC 242037
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016
 
 Lisa has been devoid of thunderstorm activity since the convective
 burst dissipated shortly after 1200 UTC.  Assuming some additional
 spin down since the ASCAT pass this morning, the initial wind speed
 is lowered to 30 kt, making Lisa a tropical depression again.
 Meteosat dust product images from the GOES-R Proving Ground indicate
 that a plume of Saharan dust is approaching Lisa from the east. This
 dry air combined with westerly shear should cause the depression to
 degenerate to a remnant low by tonight and continue weakening during
 the next day or two.  The global models are in fair agreement in
 showing the low opening into a trough in 36 to 48 hours before it
 gets absorbed by a cold front.
 
 Lisa is moving northwestward at 10 kt.  A gradual turn to the north
 is expected during the next day or two while the high pressure
 system to the north of Lisa shifts eastward.  The NHC track forecast
 is slightly to the left of the previous one, and is in best
 agreement with the various consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/2100Z 25.3N  39.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  25/0600Z 26.4N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  25/1800Z 28.4N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  26/0600Z 30.5N  42.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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