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 524 
 WTNT43 KNHC 241437
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016
 
 The convective burst that occurred overnight has separated from the
 low-level center of Lisa and is now nearly dissipated.  This leaves
 Lisa as a tight swirl of low-level clouds once again.  An ASCAT-B
 pass around 1200 UTC indicated that maximum winds were close to 40
 kt, but given the degradation of the cloud pattern since the pass
 the initial wind speed is set at 35 kt.  This makes Lisa a tropical
 storm again.  Even though Lisa is a little stronger than estimated
 earlier, the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
 one.  Continued strong shear and dry air should cause a gradual
 decay of the cyclone, and Lisa will likely become a remnant low by
 tonight.  The models are in good agreement in showing the remnant
 low opening into a trough in 36 to 48 hours before it becomes
 absorbed by a cold front.
 
 Lisa is moving northwestward at 9 kt.  A west-northwestward to
 northwestward motion at about the same speed is expected during the
 next 24 hours as Lisa remains steered by a high pressure system to
 its north.  A motion more toward the north is forecast to occur on
 Sunday as the high shifts eastward to near the Azores.  Only small
 adjustments were made to the previous NHC track prediction, and it
 lies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/1500Z 24.7N  38.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  25/0000Z 25.7N  40.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  25/1200Z 27.4N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  26/0000Z 29.3N  42.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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