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 688 
 WTNT43 KNHC 240858
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016
 
 A strong burst of convection has recently formed in the northeastern
 quadrant of Lisa. Overall, however, the system looks less organized
 than it did yesterday, with the low-level circulation becoming
 elongated from north to south.  The initial wind speed is held at 30
 kt in agreement with the TAFB satellite classification. Although
 there is only limited skill in forecasting deep convection, this
 burst is expected to be ephemeral due to strong shear and dry air
 aloft.  Thus, Lisa is still forecast to be a remnant low by this
 evening.  The global models show Lisa weakening and opening up into
 a trough within 2 days, and so will the NHC prediction.
 
 The initial motion is a bit faster than earlier, now 315/08.  Lisa,
 or its remnants, are still forecast to move west-northwestward,
 with a gradual turn toward the north in a day or two while it moves
 around the periphery of the subtropical high centered near the
 Azores.  The official forecast is close to the previous one and the
 model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0900Z 23.8N  37.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  24/1800Z 24.6N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  25/0600Z 26.0N  41.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  25/1800Z 28.0N  42.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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