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 081 
 WTNT43 KNHC 240248
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016
 
 Lisa continues to suffer from strong vertical wind shear. There has
 been no deep convection within 120 nm of the center for nearly 12
 hours now, though occasional bursts of convection have been noted a
 little farther than that to the north.  A 2324 ASCAT-B pass showed
 several 35-kt wind vectors between the center and the convection
 farther to the north.  Based on this new information, it is believed
 that Lisa was still a tropical storm at the time of the previous
 advisory and at 0000 UTC.  Given the lack of deep convection since
 that time, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. Regardless
 of the maximum winds, the dynamical guidance all suggest that the
 strong shear and dry mid- and upper-level air will continue to
 suppress convection near the center, and Lisa is forecast to be
 declared post-tropical within 12 hours. The remnant circulation
 should last a day or two after that, before dissipating ahead of a
 deep-layer trough approaching from the west.
 
 The depression may finally be beginning to speed up, and the initial
 motion estimate is 315/07.  The low-level remnants of Lisa are
 still forecast to move west-northwestward, with a gradual turn
 toward the north in a day or two while it moves around the periphery
 of the subtropical high centered near the Azores.  The official
 forecast has again been nudged westward, but lies a little to the
 right of the model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0300Z 23.2N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  24/1200Z 23.9N  38.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  25/0000Z 25.0N  40.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  25/1200Z 26.4N  42.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  26/0000Z 28.8N  42.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky
 
 
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