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 665 
 WTNT43 KNHC 232033
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016
 
 All of the deep convection has been removed far from the center of
 Lisa by continued strong southwesterly shear of around 40 kt.  The
 initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on the latest
 Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  At this point, with a combination of
 strong shear, marginal SSTs and a drying mid-level atmosphere, it
 seems unlikely that Lisa will regain organized deep convection, so
 remnant low status is now indicated by 24 hours.  The weak cyclone
 should dissipate by 72 hours in fast southwesterly flow ahead of an
 approaching deep-layer trough.
 
 The initial motion has been rather slow today, and is currently
 estimated as 310/06.  The increasingly shallow cyclone is expected
 to turn west-northwestward tonight and then recurve between 36 and
 48 hours as the deep-layer trough approaches from the west.  The new
 NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one after
 12 hours, reflecting a westward shift in the guidance that is
 probably responding to Lisa's weakening.  This forecast is close to
 the middle of the guidance envelope and near the latest guidance
 from the Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/2100Z 22.5N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  24/0600Z 23.4N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  24/1800Z 24.4N  40.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  25/0600Z 26.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  25/1800Z 27.9N  42.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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