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 715 
 WTNT43 KNHC 231434
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016
 
 Lisa's center remains exposed to the southwest of the deep
 convection due to around 40 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed by
 UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model fields.  The initial intensity remains
 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, but this could
 be a little generous.
 
 Strong shear is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours.
 This shear, in combination with a drying mid-level atmosphere and
 marginal SSTs, should result in weakening.  Lisa is forecast to
 weaken to a tropical depression tonight, and become a remnant low in
 24 to 36 hours, as organized deep convection is expected to decay in
 the harsh environment.  The remnant low of Lisa is forecast to open
 up into a trough in 3 to 4 days, in agreement with the latest GFS
 and ECMWF solutions.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 315/06.  Lisa should continue moving
 generally northwestward around the subtropical ridge for the next 36
 hours.  After that time, the decaying system should recurve ahead of
 a deep-layer trough moving across the northern Atlantic.  The new
 NHC track forecast is close to the previous one through 24 hours and
 has been nudged westward at 36 and 48 hours following the latest
 trend in the guidance.  This forecast is close to the multi-model
 consensus aid TVCN and the GEFS ensemble mean.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/1500Z 22.2N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  24/0000Z 23.1N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  24/1200Z 24.2N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  25/0000Z 25.4N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  25/1200Z 27.4N  42.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  26/1200Z 31.5N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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