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 999 
 WTNT43 KNHC 230855
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016
 
 The center of Lisa has become fully exposed due to strong shear,
 like so many Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2016.  Some convection
 remains, although well away from the center, in the northern
 semicircle.  The initial wind speed is reduced to 35 kt, which is on
 the high side of the latest Dvorak estimates.  Very strong shear
 should cause further weakening, along with marginal SSTS and
 increasingly dry air aloft.  Deep convection will likely be
 struggling in that environment within 24 hours, and the new forecast
 has Lisa becoming a remnant low in 36 hours.  Most of the global
 models now show Lisa decaying to a trough in 3 to 4 days before it
 gets absorbed by a cold front, but either way it should be a weak
 system by then.
 
 Lisa continues moving northwestward at about 8 kt.  A track toward
 the west-northwest or northwest is expected for the next couple of
 days while the system moves around the subtropical ridge. Afterward
 the post-tropical cyclone should turn northward as it gets caught up
 in southerly flow ahead of Karl.  The guidance has shifted westward
 on this cycle, possibly due to a weaker Lisa being steered more by
 the low-level subtropical ridge.  Thus, the official forecast
 is moved westward as well, near or just west of the model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0900Z 21.8N  35.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  23/1800Z 22.7N  36.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  24/0600Z 23.6N  38.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  24/1800Z 24.6N  40.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  25/0600Z 26.1N  41.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  26/0600Z 30.5N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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