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 705 
 WTNT43 KNHC 230238
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016
 
 Lisa continues to struggle in the face of strong deep-layer shear.
 Although the cyclone continues to pulsate convection, several
 microwave passes between 1900 and 2100 UTC indicate that the center
 has become somewhat more removed from the deepest convection since
 this afternoon.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt, in
 line with decreased Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  A 2344 UTC
 ASCAT-B pass missed the center of Lisa, but showed that 35 kt winds
 are present 100-150 nm NE of the presumed center.
 
 Lisa is forecast to remain in a high shear and increasingly dry
 environment, so further weakening seems inevitable.  The main
 question is how quickly will the deep convection cease to exist.
 The GFS and HWRF both show mid- to upper-level dry air cutting over
 the circulation in about 36 to 48 hours, suggesting a complete lack
 of deep convection in those models at that time. The official
 forecast now calls for Lisa to become post tropical within 48 hours,
 before being absorbed by an approaching front after 96 hours.
 
 There is little change to the track forecast reasoning overall.
 Lisa continues to move toward the northwest, or 320 degrees, at a
 rather uncertain 8 kt.  A lack of microwave or scatterometer data
 over the center since 2100 UTC has made the center difficult to
 locate and introduces some uncertainty to the forecast. Regardless,
 Lisa should continue moving northwestward around a low- to mid-level
 ridge, located east of the Azores, before recurving ahead of an
 approaching front.  The first 48 hours of the forecast are near a
 consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.  The 72 and 96 hour points
 incorporate guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0300Z 21.3N  35.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  23/1200Z 22.4N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  24/0000Z 23.6N  37.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  24/1200Z 24.7N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  25/0000Z 26.2N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  26/0000Z 30.5N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  27/0000Z 35.5N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  28/0000Z...ABSORBED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky
 
 
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