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 618 
 WTNT43 KNHC 221435
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016
 
 An ASCAT-A pass from 1138Z showed that the center of Lisa is located
 near the southwestern edge of an area of bursting deep convection.
 The ASCAT data showed a cluster of 40-45 kt winds north of the
 center, so the initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory,
 which is also in agreement with the latest Dvorak current intensity
 estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB.  The restrengthening
 appears to have occurred despite the shear increasing to 30-35 kt
 based on the SHIPS model analyses and satellite analyses from
 UW-CIMSS, and the upper-level outflow has improved somewhat during
 the past few hours.  However, the separation between the convection
 and the low-level center appears to be increasing, and Lisa will be
 moving into a region of even stronger southwesterly shear in the
 next 24 hours, which should result in weakening.  The shear is
 forecast to relax late in the period, but it is unlikely that Lisa
 will be able to recover and the cyclone is forecast to become a
 remnant low in 3 to 4 days.  This is in agreement with the global
 models, which show the system decaying by that time.  The new NHC
 intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one given
 the higher initial intensity, and is closest to the statistical-
 dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models.
 
 Based on the ASCAT data and earlier microwave fixes, my best
 estimate of the initial motion is 310/06, as the cyclone appears to
 have slowed down some during the past few hours.  The track forecast
 reasoning remains the same, however, with Lisa expected to move
 northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge for the next 48
 hours.  After that time, Lisa or its remnants should recurve ahead
 of a large mid-latitude trough.  The new NHC track forecast is an
 update of the previous one through 72 hours and has been shifted a
 bit to the right at days 4 and 5 following the latest model guidance
 trends.  There is a fair bit of along-track spread in the guidance
 late in the period, with the ECMWF much faster than the GFS and
 UKMET.  The NHC forecast favors the slower solution, in agreement
 with the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 The initial and forecast 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on
 the above-mentioned ASCAT data.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/1500Z 20.0N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  23/0000Z 21.1N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  23/1200Z 22.5N  36.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  24/0000Z 23.8N  37.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  24/1200Z 25.0N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  25/1200Z 28.0N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  26/1200Z 32.0N  39.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  27/1200Z 35.5N  37.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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