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 888 
 WTNT43 KNHC 220840
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016
 
 As anticipated, the southwesterly shear has been gradually
 increasing, and the center of Lisa is located on the western edge
 of an area of very deep convection convection. Based on the average
 of Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt in this
 advisory. Given that the shear is forecast to increase further, and
 the fact that Lisa is heading for cooler waters, the NHC forecast
 calls for weakening. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low
 in about 3 days, but this process could even occur much sooner. The
 intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one.
 
 The steering pattern has not changed, and Lisa is moving toward the
 northwest or 310 degrees around the western side of a weak
 subtropical ridge. This general track should continue for the next
 2 to 3 days until a large mid-latitude trough amplifies and force
 Lisa or its remnants to recurve. The NHC track forecast is an update
 of the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model
 consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/0900Z 19.9N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  22/1800Z 20.9N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  23/0600Z 22.3N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  23/1800Z 23.6N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  24/0600Z 25.0N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  25/0600Z 27.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  26/0600Z 31.5N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  27/0600Z 35.0N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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