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 014 
 WTNT43 KNHC 220238
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016
 
 Lisa remains a sheared tropical cyclone.  Deep convection has
 expanded in coverage this evening, but recent microwave imagery and
 ASCAT data indicate that the low-level center is located near
 the far western edge of the sharp gradient of cold cloud tops.  The
 ASCAT pass did not cover much of the northeastern portion of the
 circulation, but it did detected a large area of 35 kt winds to the
 north and north-northeast of the center.  Based on these data and
 satellite estimates of 35 and 45 kt, from SAB and TAFB respectively,
 the initial intensity remains 40 kt.  Lisa is already located
 within an area of strong upper-level southwesterly winds to the
 southeast of a large upper-level low.  During the next day or two
 the tropical storm is forecast to approach the cut-off low, which
 according to the SHIPS model will produce 30-40 kt of shear over
 Lisa.  As a result, the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken
 and become a remnant low in about 3 days, and it could dissipate
 before the end of the foreast period.  The new NHC intensity
 forecast essentially an update of the previous forecast and is in
 best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.
 
 The microwave and ASCAT fixes suggest that Lisa is moving
 north-northwestward at about 6 kt, which is a little right of the
 previous forecasts.  The cyclone is expected to move northwestward
 toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge currently between 30
 and 40W.  Later in the period, an amplifying mid- to upper-level
 trough over the western Atlantic should cause Lisa or its remnants
 to turn northward and recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies by
 day 5.  The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, and only
 a small eastward adjustment was required during the first 72 hours.
 The updated track prediction is very close to the latest multi-model
 consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/0300Z 19.2N  32.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  22/1200Z 20.2N  33.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  23/0000Z 21.6N  35.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  23/1200Z 23.0N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  24/0000Z 24.3N  37.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  25/0000Z 26.7N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  26/0000Z 31.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  27/0000Z 36.5N  37.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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