Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 500 
 WTNT43 KNHC 212039
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 500 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016
 
 Vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt continues to take a toll on Lisa.
 The coldest convective tops have moved farther east away from the
 estimated low-level center position today.  Dvorak estimates were
 T2.5/3.0 from both TAFB and SAB at 18Z, and based on these, the
 initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Given
 that Lisa has struggled to maintain itself today, and that the SHIPS
 model shows the shear increasing to 30 kt in the next 18 to 24
 hours, there seems to be little opportunity left for the cyclone to
 strengthen.  Given this, the new NHC intensity forecast holds Lisa
 at 40 kt through 24 hours and then shows gradual weakening to
 remnant low status in 3 to 4 days as the shear increases to near 40
 kt and the mid-level relative humidity drops below 30 percent.  This
 forecast is closest to the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical
 models.
 
 An AMSR-2 pass from GCOM-W1 from around 1430Z provided some guidance
 on the center location, but it remains somewhat uncertain given the
 large spread in the satellite fixes.  However, it does appear that
 the center is located a little to the east of previous estimates,
 and the initial motion is estimated to be 325/06.  The track
 forecast scenario has not changed, as Lisa is expected to move
 northwestward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge and then
 recurve into the mid-latitude flow during the forecast period.
 Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted eastward this cycle, and
 given the eastward adjustment in the initial position, the NHC
 forecast has been shifted eastward by about a degree.  The official
 forecast track is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF and lies to
 the left of multi-model consensus TVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/2100Z 18.5N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  22/0600Z 19.4N  33.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  22/1800Z 20.8N  34.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  23/0600Z 22.1N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  23/1800Z 23.5N  37.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  24/1800Z 26.0N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  25/1800Z 30.0N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  26/1800Z 36.0N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for LISA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman