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 647 
 WTNT43 KNHC 211434
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016
 
 The cloud pattern of Lisa has not changed much since the previous
 advisory.  A 0911 UTC SSMIS image suggested that the low-level
 center was located on the western edge of the central convection.
 The 12Z Dvorak Data-T numbers from SAB and TAFB decreased and a
 partial ASCAT-B pass from 1115 UTC only showed 30-35 kt winds in the
 northeastern quadrant.  However, the initial intensity is held at 45
 kt given the lack of clear evidence of weakening and in agreement
 with the the latest Dvorak CI numbers of T3.0/45 kt.  There is only
 a small opportunity for the cyclone to strengthen before the shear
 increases even further in 24 to 36 hours.  Weakening is expected
 after that time, and later in the period, as the mid-level
 environment becomes quite dry, the cyclone should weaken to a
 remnant low.  The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
 previous one and is near the middle of the guidance in the first 36
 hours and then is near or below the weaker LGEM solution after that
 time.
 
 The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/07, given
 the lack of confidence in the location of the center.  Lisa will
 move northwestward during the next 72 hours into a weakness in the
 subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic, and then recurve into
 the mid-latitude westerlies on days 4 and 5.  The global models are
 in generally good agreement on this scenario, with the ECMWF lying
 on the left side of the guidance cluster and the GFS shifting to the
 right this cycle.  The new NHC track forecast is an update of the
 previous one but has been adjusted for the initial position and
 motion.  This forecast is near a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
 tracks and is well to the left of the GFDL and HWRF models, which
 lie nearly 200 n mi east of the rest of the guidance at days 3 and
 4.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/1500Z 18.0N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  22/0000Z 18.6N  33.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  22/1200Z 19.7N  34.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  23/0000Z 20.9N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  23/1200Z 22.3N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  24/1200Z 25.0N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  25/1200Z 28.5N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  26/1200Z 34.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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