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 358 
 WTNT43 KNHC 210241
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016
 
 Deep convection has increased in coverage near and to the northeast
 of the center of Lisa this evening.  Although the exact center has
 been difficult to pinpoint in infrared satellite images, it appears
 that it is located near the southwestern edge of the convection due
 to some southwesterly shear.  Satellite intensity estimates still
 support a wind speed of around 40 kt, so the initial intensity is
 unchanged for this advisory.  Lisa has about 24 hours over warm
 water and in a marginally conducive upper-level wind environment in
 which to strengthen.  After that time, an upper-level low to Lisa's
 northwest is expected to produce strong southwesterly shear over
 the cyclone, which should cause weakening.  As a result, the NHC
 intensity forecast calls for peak intensity in about 24 hours,
 followed by steady weakening thereafter.  The official forecast is
 near the upper-end of the guidance at 24 hours, but is slightly
 lower than the consensus after that time.
 
 The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 315/9 kt.  The
 track forecast appears to be fairly straight forward as Lisa
 should continue moving northwestward during the next several
 days toward a break in the subtropical ridge.  Late in the forecast
 period, the cyclone should turn northward ahead of a deepening mid-
 to upper-level trough over the west-central Atlantic.  The dynamical
 models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast
 is near a blend of the typically better performing ECMWF and GFS
 models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/0300Z 17.1N  31.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  21/1200Z 17.8N  32.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  22/0000Z 18.6N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  22/1200Z 19.4N  35.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  23/0000Z 20.6N  36.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  24/0000Z 23.6N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  25/0000Z 26.5N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  26/0000Z 31.0N  43.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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