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 563 
 WTNT43 KNHC 202042
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016
 
 During the past six hours, a central dense overcast (CDO) feature
 has developed over and to the east of Lisa's low-level center. The
 upper-level outflow has also improved, albeit elongated northeast-
 to-southwest.  The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt,
 which is a blend of a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35
 kt from TAFB, a UW-CIMSS ADT values of T2.9/43 kt, and a 1611Z AMSU
 estimate of 44 kt.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 315/10 kt. Lisa has made a jog to the
 right of the previous forecast track and model guidance, which is
 most likely due to the center reforming closer to the strongest
 convection. Other than shifting the forecast track to the right of
 the previous advisory track to account for the more eastward initial
 position, the forecast rationale remains unchanged. The latest NHC
 model guidance continues to indicate a steady northwestward motion
 for the next four days toward a break in the subtropical ridge
 between 30W-40W longitude.  On day 5, Lisa is expected to move
 northward as the ridge erodes eastward. The new NHC forecast track
 lies down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope through
 day 4, and then follows a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF models on day
 5 since those models maintain the cyclone longer.
 
 Lisa has another 36 hours or so to strengthen some more before the
 large-scale environment becomes very unfavorable, which will be
 characterized by southwesterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt,
 drier and more stable air, and SSTs less than 27 deg C. It is
 possible that Lisa could end up being a little stronger between the
 24- and 36-hour forecast periods. By 48 hours, however, steady
 weakening is expected to ensue, with Lisa becoming a remnant low
 pressure system by 120 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows
 the intensity consensus model IVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/2100Z 16.4N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  21/0600Z 17.2N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  21/1800Z 18.1N  33.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  22/0600Z 19.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  22/1800Z 20.0N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  23/1800Z 22.7N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  24/1800Z 25.2N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  25/1800Z 29.2N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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