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 729 
 WTNT43 KNHC 201455
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016
 
 The cloud pattern of the cyclone has steadily improved, with long
 curved bands having developed in the northern semicircle since the
 previous advisory. Although Dvorak satellite classifications from
 TAFB and SAB were 30 kt at 1200Z, recent UW-CIMSS ADT values have
 increased to 35 kt and AMSU intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt.
 Therefore the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt, which
 is a compromise of these estimates, making the cyclone the eleventh
 named storm of the 2016 hurricane season.
 
 Visible satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Lisa is now
 moving northwestward or 305/10 kt. Water vapor imagery and
 satellite-derived winds indicate that a large mid-latitude trough
 extends from near the Canary Islands southwestward into the tropics,
 which has created a break in the subtropical ridge along 30W-40W
 longitude. Lisa is forecast to move generally northwestward toward
 the break in the ridge for the next 4 days, followed by a northward
 turn as the cyclone moves around the western periphery of the ridge
 axis. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement on this
 track scenario, and the new NHC forecast track is just a little to
 the right of the previous advisory track, mainly to account for the
 more northward initial position, and lies close to the consensus
 model TVCN.
 
 Lisa has about 48 hours remaining to strengthen while the vertical
 wind shear and upper-level outflow pattern remain favorable, and
 sea-surface temperatures are above 27 deg C. However, a marginally
 moist mid-level environment and the large size of the cyclone are
 expected to prevent any rapid strengthening from occuring. After
 that time, the atmosphere is expected to become quite hostile,
 characterized by southwesterly shear of 25-30 kt and much drier
 mid-level air, resulting in steady weakening from 72-120 hours.
 Although the dynamical guidance continues to forecast some
 relaxation of the shear toward the end of the period, the cyclone
 will likely be too degraded to recover. The official intensity
 forecast is close to the SHIPS model through 48 hours, and then lies
 closer to the LGEM guidance after that.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/1500Z 15.3N  30.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  21/0000Z 16.2N  31.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  21/1200Z 17.3N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  22/0000Z 18.2N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  22/1200Z 19.1N  36.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  23/1200Z 21.7N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  24/1200Z 24.5N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  25/1200Z 28.3N  43.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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