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 774 
 WTNT43 KNHC 200841
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016
 
 The cloud pattern of the depression is only slightly better
 organized than yesterday, with some broken convective banding over
 the northeastern portion of the circulation.  Overall, however, the
 system is elongated from southwest to northeast.  The initial
 intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from
 both TAFB and SAB.  The tropical cyclone is expected to remain in a
 low shear environment for the next 48 hours or so, and therefore
 some strengthening is forecast during that time frame.  Later in
 the period, the dynamical environment is likely to become hostile
 for strengthening since shear associated with an upper-level trough
 is forecast to increase to around 30 kt in 3-4 days.  Given this
 expected change in the large-scale environment, weakening should
 begin in 2-3 days and the system is predicted to revert to tropical
 depression status by the end of the forecast period. Although the
 dynamical guidance shows some relaxation of the shear at the end of
 the period, the current thinking is that by that time the system
 will be too disrupted to be able to recover.  The official intensity
 forecast is close to the LGEM guidance through 72 hours and a little
 below it at days 4 and 5.
 
 There is considerable spread in center fixes and the initial motion
 is an uncertain 295/8 kt.  A weakness in the subtropical ridge
 along 30W-40W is likely to induce a more northwestward track
 during the next day or so, followed by a return to a west-
 northwestward motion as the ridge rebuilds a bit to the north
 of the cyclone.  Late in the forecast period, the system is
 forecast to turn back toward the northwest due to another weakness
 in the ridge.  The official track forecast is somewhat slower and
 to the right of the previous one but close to the new dynamical
 model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/0900Z 14.4N  29.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  20/1800Z 15.4N  30.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  21/0600Z 16.6N  32.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  21/1800Z 17.5N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  22/0600Z 18.4N  35.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  23/0600Z 20.8N  38.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  24/0600Z 23.4N  40.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  25/0600Z 26.5N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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