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 070 
 WTNT43 KNHC 200244
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016
 
 The coverage of deep convection associated with the depression has
 decreased somewhat during the past several hours, but the
 circulation remains well established with several fragmented
 curved bands. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
 support maintaining the initial wind speed of 30 kt.
 
 The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt.  A weakness in
 the subtropical ridge over the east-central Atlantic is expected to
 persist for the next several days due to a series of shortwave
 troughs moving through the area.  As a result, a continued
 west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same forward
 speed is expected throughout the forecast period. The models are in
 fair agreement, and the NHC track prediction lies on the left side
 of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the ECMWF model.
 
 The environmental conditions for strengthening during the next
 several days are mixed.  Although the shear is expected to be light
 and waters warm during the next couple of days, the atmosphere is
 not overly moist in the vicinity of the depression.  These
 conditions should allow for slow strengthening during the next 48
 hours.  Beyond that time, however, the system is expected to move
 in less favorable conditions of stronger shear, even drier air, and
 more marginal SSTs.  These conditions should halt strengthening
 and induce gradual weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast lies
 close to the intensity model consensus for the first few days, but
 is lower than the consensus at days 4 and 5 given the expected
 hostile conditions.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/0300Z 14.2N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  20/1200Z 15.0N  30.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  21/0000Z 16.1N  32.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  21/1200Z 17.2N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  22/0000Z 18.1N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  23/0000Z 20.0N  38.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  24/0000Z 22.0N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  25/0000Z 25.0N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
 
 
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